This is our Ontario Spring: Renewing responsible government democratically

By Gerry Barker

May 31, 2018

The Tuesday edition of the Guelph Tribune carried a Page One story that was based on a poll of 668 persons in Guelph.

It claimed that the Green Party candidates Mike Schreiner, was leading with 31.7 per cent in the Guelph provincial election race.

The methodology used was the pollster’s use of a daily tracker system operated by Mainstreet Research.

In second place, at 28 per cent was NDP candidate Agnieszka Mlynarz.

PG candidate Ray Ferarro followed at 25 per cent and Sly Castaldi, representing the Liberals was rated at 11.9 per cent’

It isn’t clear when this poll was conducted or what the content of the question or which party may have commissioned it. Polls do cost money.

But Mainstreet Research conducted another province-wide poll that was published Tuesday, May 28.

The City of Toronto’s section of the Mainstreet Research poll stated the NDP has 40.9 per cent support while the PC’s revealed 28.7 per cent, the Liberals with 25.5 per cent. And the Green party? Just 3.2 per cent.

If this is accurate in the City of Toronto, then much of that Liberal support that elected Kathleen Wynne four years ago may have swung over to the NDP. It’s hard to believe that the PC’s only have 28.7 per cent when it’s the heartland of Ford Nation.

But let’s look at another specific area in the Mainstreet Research’s provincial poll.

In the GTA, the PC’s are leading with 42.1 per cent. Next is the NDP with 32.4, The Liberals at 18 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent.

This poll seems closer to other polls in term of the possible outcome.

Starting to see if you believe in polls, precision is replaced by forced predictability. Even the candidates keep saying the real poll is Election Day, June 7.

Here’s one more area pollsters measured of interest to Guelph voters, South Central Ontario. Here we find the NDP with a commanding lead at 50.3 per cent. The PC’s are second at 34.6 per cent. The Liberals are holding at 6.9 per cent. The Green Party having 3.8 per cent. Note the total falls short of 100.

If anything is consistent it’s the voter rating of the Green Party that in three major regions of Ontario is stuck around 4 per cent.

Here we have two polls conducted by the same polling firm that indicate the high rating of the Greens in Guelph is skewed when the large data shows the Party has little support across the province.

How is this possible? Is Guelph an Island in the Green wave that will not form a government in Ontario? So why does one poll, conducted by the same polling company differ so widely with the candidacy of Mike Schreiner?

Leading the Guelph race according to the daily tracking poll with 31.7 per cent the Green Party has barely budged holding at 4 per cent support across the rest of the provincial ridings.

Did that pro-Schreiner editorial published in the Toronto Star influence the majority of Guelph voters to support the Green Party? More important, why would they support the party of David Suzuki, the millionaire voice of gloom and doom about the planet. Wonder how much he was paid to address some 300 partisans at a recent Schreiner rally in Guelph?

Guess it depends on your interpretation of “Green.”

There is no doubt that Mr. Schreiner has run a campaign that is well-funded and when the campaign finance statements are published there will be some surprises of who funded whom.

One has to wonder how the NDP brain trust, after working on the party platform for two years, could make an error of $1.4 billion in its costing of the platform. If you can’t do the math preparing a platform then, how can the NDP be trusted to run the complex finances of the province?

For a lot of people this is a hold-your-nose election.

In my opinion, for our city it is a watershed event. The millions that have been spent in Guelph on failed environmental projects in the past 11 years, reveals it is not necessary to give away our power distribution system for pennies on the dollar.

It does not mean we should turn over control of Guelph Hydro, indulge in building District Energy systems to attain energy self-sufficiency and provide a thermal system to supply hot and cold water to five downtown buildings.

It is vital for all citizens who will cast their ballots on June 7 to elect the candidate who understands our city, has lived in the city all his life, has served on council and worked with the city to develop both residential and industrial projects. Ray Ferraro is that man and the only experienced candidate when elected, will work tirelessly for Guelph in the Ontario Legislature.

He is the only candidate that can, along with his PC colleagues, bring change, responsible fiscal management and prosperity not only to Guelph but the province.

So, the polls are not what they pretend to be. Consider bias, misinformation by respondents and a river of news reports and partisan commentary that, depending on your preference, often get it wrong.

This, I predict, will be our day where party loyalty will be a soufflé of switches, misses and, hopefully a renaissance of recovery for Ontario.

Only ten days to go for Doug Ford to face the Nabobs of negativity

By Gerry Barker

May 28, 2018

It’s a peculiar election with the emphasis on puffy style and forgetting the substance of a Liberal government that’s long past its due date.

The case for the prosecution is clear. The Wynne Liberals have pushed its social engineering so far to the left that it is teetering on a wipeout at the polls.

Still not convinced? The fundamental problem is the absence of sound financial management of the public’s money. This is accompanied by driving up energy costs by borrowing $4 billion to pay for a limited reduction in electricity; hiking user fees and new taxes including taxing tangible belongings after you die on top of probate fees.

How did you benefit when the minimum wage was increased by $2.60 an hour and will be bumped by another buck next January. On top of the rewrite of the labour code, part-time workers are now entitled to the same benefits as full-time workers. Benefits such as sick leave, vacation time and the new one, personal family leave with pay.

Is it any wonder why the economy of Ontario is suffering as southwestern Ontario is being labeled as Canada’s Rust Belt? This is due to the disappearance of manufacturing jobs that will never come back.

So, while Toronto has become the Centre of the provincial universe and the benefactor of the Liberals dominance of seats in the GTA, this government has earned the position of running last in recent polls, for good reasons.

The Toronto Star, early last week, published an editorial encouraging Guelph voters to support the Green Party Leader, Mike Schreiner. Thanks Star, but Guelph’s voters can think for themselves and predictably, Mike will not represent the city when the ballots are counted.

Now I know this is going to enrage those folks who believe in the dangers of Climate Change, as I share that view.

Here’s another Toronto Star doozy. Just the other day it published a page one report about Doug Ford denying “role in fake membership.” But placed prominently on the right of the story was a colourful box stating a poll showed Andrea Horwath of the NDP with 47 percent of the respondents; Doug Ford of the PC’s had 33 per cent; Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals were at 14 per cent and Mike Schreiner was at 4 per cent.

The poll was taken by Forum Research and was described by The Star that it was the most recent poll and played it big time.

According to the Star report, Forum used an interactive voice response system and contacted 906 persons across the Province. How many calls did Forum make with this interactive system (robo call) before actually receiving an answer and comment?

In my opinion this poll was so far out of whack even when compared to another Forum poll done May 9. It reported the Ford Tories at 40 per cent, followed by the NDP at 33 per cent, the Liberals at 22 per cent and the Green Party at 4 per cent.

One thing is clear, Mike Schreiner is holding last in both polls at 4 per cent.

This is the greatest comeback since Judy Garland sang “Somewhere over the Rainbow.”

This represents a 14 per cent swing favouring the NDP in just 16 days!

However, if Forum hit the mother load of NDP respondents in publishing the poll, later polls suggest the race is very close with Ms. Horwath’s NDP at 37 per cent and Mr. Ford’s Tories at 36 per cent.

Predictably, the last ten days will be a wild push for all parties.

The battle will be fought in the ridings across the province.

Regardless of your political persuasion, this is going to be a barnburner and I wouldn’t bet on the outcome.

But this is an election about change. Under our parliamentary system, the party that elects the most number of its candidates forms the new government.

Following last night’s leadership debate, the NDP may have slipped because its leader, Andrea Horwath, frequently talked over the other participants. The battle of words between Premier Wynne and Horwath witnessed Doug Ford sitting back and let them go at it.

The PC leader scored some good points about the state of the provinces’ finances particularly the cost of carrying the provincial debt of $12 billion a year.

Why Change is the real issue in the June 7 Provincial election

By Gerry Barker

May 21, 2018

In just 17 days, the voters in Ontario will go to the polls to elect a new government in Ontario.

In Guelph a riding encompassing only the City of Guelph, the indication is that voters just want Change meaning ABW – Anybody but Wynne. That leaves just three candidates for the Guelph riding including Ray Ferarro, representing the Progressive Conservatives; Mike Schreiner of the Green Party; and fot the NDP – Agnieszka Mlynarz.

The fourth candidate is the Liberal candidate Sly Castaldi who has the dubious task of defending the policies of the Wynne Government whose party is mired in third place in the polls. Chief Liberal problem is the low approval of the leader Kathleen Wynne, who has not budged from a 20 per cent approval rating in more than a year.

The desire for change in Ontario exists right here in Guelph. Right now, the PC’s are leading over all the other parties to form a new government. It is their’s to lose aided and abetted by the Toronto Star’s daily concentrated negative news and commentary carried throughout the news pages. The Star’s target is PC Leader Doug Ford who despite a few missteps, seems to maintain his party’s lead in the polls.

In my opinion, this election is about Change triggered by 15 years of Liberal governments that reflect abuse of the public trust (gas plants destruction). Overbuilding power green generation facilities with expensive long-term contracts (wind and solar) making Ontario with the highest power costs of most jurisdictions in North America.

Even the Ontario Auditor General, Bonnie Lysyk, said the government borrowed $4 billion off its books. This was to finance the five year “fair hydro” 25 per cent reduction of power charged to end users.

What happens then when that money must be paid back? Our power rates will soar in 2022 when the deal expires.

Another reason Ontario will vote for Change.

Assuming the Liberal candidate has no chance of retaining the seat, lets compare the remaining three candidates and what issues are Guelph voters most concerned about? What influence can they have to accommodate their constituents’s concerns and desire for Change?

Health accessibility and long-term care – Ray Ferarro: “If elected, I will work as your member to undo the Wynne government’s cuts to hospital and long term care expansion. I pledge to fight for an end to hallway medicine where patients, for lack of space, are ware-housed in the hallways of Ontario’s medical service institutions.”

The NDP candidate, Agnieszka Mlynarz, is responsible for the Party Leader’s platform that while critical of the Liberals, represents costly social programs that are warmed over policies of the Wynne government. The platform came under fire recently from financial experts who claimed the numbers did not add up. Regardless, NDP leader Andrea Horwath, a veteran of 12 years in the Legislature, has been running an intensive campaign that has her moving the party into second place according to the latest polling.

Can Agnieszka Mlynarz win? In my opinion too many memory of the Bob Ray NDP government still lingers in the minds of many voters. Besides her platform does not represent change but a version of the Liberal’s social engineering policies.

The green tinge of the environmentalists in the NDP does not help in Guelph where citizens were hammered by a secret abortive green-power scheme. It was to create power self-sufficiency and reduce carbon dioxide emissions that are affecting climate change. The cost was more than $60 million of citizen’s public money.

The Green Party candidate, Mike Schreiner, has mounted a well-funded campaign including the best signs on the roads and streets. Voters know that the Green Party under leader Mike Schreiner, has never elected a Green Party candidate in Ontario.

But where does the Green Party money come from?

Well, the Greens held a rally in Guelph that was allegedly attended by 350 people with the guest speaker David Suzuki, the British Columbia multi-millionaire exploiter of fear of the earth atmosphere destroying the planet. This guy has made a handsome living promoting fear and loathing of the use of fossil fuels that he, among others, is destroying our atmosphere.

Some facts. That erupting volcano on the Hawaiian Big Island spews more carbon dioxide, the dreaded CO2, into the atmosphere in five minuses than all the fossil-fueled facilities in Canada in a month.

Canada contributes two per cent of all global CO2 emissions in a year.

This is the party that elected three members in the B.C. legislature and yjeu are propping up the NDP government opposed to the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain oil pipeline. It will take Alberta crude to the Pacific and open new markets for our resources.

The Canadian Government approves the pipeline as it has passed all regulations including an environmental assessment. But the three Green Party members of the B.C. legislature are dead against it. Based on the hypothetical argument it will carry fossil fuel feed stock and the threat of a tanker oil spill on its coastline is too great a risk.

More facts: The polls in B.C. show the majority of people are in favour of the pipeline. The three Green Party objectors have been members of the Legislature for little more than a year. Yet they are effectively stopping construction, so far, this pipeline that is legal and necessary to open up new markets for Canadian resources at better prices now only available from the U.S.

Ask yourself, why is Mike Schreiner running in Guelph?

In my opinion, even if he is elected to the Ontario Legislature, he will be the loneliest member in the House with no power, no influence and no support.

Nice guy but running in the wrong place.

In summary, I like Ray Ferarro for my member in the Ontario Legislature. He is the only candidate born, raised and worked in Guelph and as a former city councillor who knows what the people are concerned about.

That’s why he will work to improve our ailing healthcare system. Battle to stop the Guelph Hydro/Alectra merger now before the Ontario Energy Board for approval.

He will speak up on the issues affecting Guelph not only in the P.C. caucus but also in the legislature.

If elected, we can depend on Ray being part of Change at Queen’s Park.