This poll giving the Liberal candidate a 44.1per cent lead lacks the elements of authenticity

By Gerry Barker

October 21, 2019


Having being involved in a number of elections, this poll published two days before Monday’s Federal Election, leaves out some fidelity of who ordered it? Who paid for it? Who conducted it?

To be sure, it wasn’t the campaigns of the Green Party, (23.3 per cent) The Conservatives, (21.9 per cent) The NDP, (6.2 per cent) The People’s Party of Canada (3.8 per cent). The opposition parties would never publish this result, if it were true.

The pollsters were IPolitics and Mainstreet Research. Neither appears to be incorporated. Who are the polling employees involved in making the 630 calls on September 30? That was three weeks ago.

That, in itself, makes this poll result useless and inaccurate today.

That’s a long time to publish this alleged data two days before the election.

The poll operators claimed to have a plus or minus error margin of 3.9 per cent.

Okay, how many Guelph voters were called September 30? How were they selected?

It is obvious that the Liberal campaign was in trouble just before election day and asking the Mercury Tribune to publish the result of the poll.

Here’s a personal memory. In 1968, I was the campaign manager for Liberal, Jimmy Walker, who was the party whip in the Pearson government. Jimmy narrowly won in two elections, defeating the NDP in York Centre. The previous win he only won by 33 votes.

This time was different as the NDP nominated newspaper columnist Doug Fisher.

We organized a potent ground team across the riding. Jimmy received a call from Keith Davey, the National organizer for the Liberal Party now led by Pierre Trudeau. We had lunch in a quiet restaurant in North York and Keith swore us to secrecy not to reveal what he was going to tell us. My heart sank but Keith smiled and said: Jim, you’re going to win by more than 30,000 votes according to our polling data.

In fact he won by 33,000 votes. When you are ahead you don’t talk about.

It seems this poll supporting the Liberals in Guelph is deliberately self-serving.

I believe that the electorate in the city has high numbers of progressive supporters. The Liberals have benefited by influencing some of those progressive supporters to vote Liberal. It’s been like that for a long time.

In last year’s provincial election, the Liberal candidate ran fourth in a five-candidate race as the majority of the progressive supporters migrated to the Green Party.

The remaining question about the Liberal campaign supporters is will the Green Party repeat that performance today?

Final Thought: Tonight, Guelph council is holding an emergency meeting starting at 6 p.m. to consider a staff recommendation to spend $197 million on a new consolidated operations campus. Estimated completion time is 2045.

The administration’s response was that it was too difficult to hold it at any other time.


Filed under Between the Lines

2 responses to “This poll giving the Liberal candidate a 44.1per cent lead lacks the elements of authenticity

  1. Rena

    In a word about your closing remark…..BULLSHIT!


    Sure hope the City hasn’t contravened the Elections Act as it applies to employers giving employees ‘X’ number of hours to vote on election day-sure don’t need any more legal suits!

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